A press release on the WMATA website reads:
About 16,000 people in the Washington region are registered for MetroAccess, which has more than doubled in use and more than tripled in cost over the last several years.
Now if a person were to hear that statement it would definitely give them pause. This statement is followed by numbers which in no way bear the statement out.
It cost $12.5 million to provide 477,160 passenger trips in fiscal 1999, compared to $42 million and 1.2 million passenger trips in fiscal 2005.
Let’s look at this for a minute.
Is MetroAccess Really Costing More?
In 1999, according to WMATA’s figures (number of rides divided by money spent), it cost $26.20 per passenger trip. Using WMATA’s same figures in 2005 it cost $35.00 per passenger trip. The difference of around $9.00 shrinks even further with inflation factored in – the 1999 cost (with inflation) rises to $30.41. But no matter how much you scratch your head and turn the paper around, the difference between the two per-trip amounts does not come to a triple cost! What we are talking about comes to less than $4.00 per ride more.
WMATA would be better served to use this to show how very economically MetroAccess is actually being run. One of the most volitile components in any transportation business is the cost of fuel. So what happened to fuel costs between 1999 and 2005? Well in 1999 the cost of gas was $1.16 per gallon. Adjusting for inflation brings the equivalent of spending $1.35 per gallon in 2005 dollars. Since the price per gallon in 2005 averaged $2.32, WMATA did a splendid job of spending the budget it had for MetroAccess services! All things considered, MetroAccess is NOT costing more when looked at on a more appropriate per-trip basis.
OK, so what did change? This question was asked by one of the committee members to WMATA at the DC Budget Hearings this past week. WMATA could provide no substantiative answer.
Is There an Epidemic of Disabled People?
The cost per ride didn’t change in any inexplicable way but the number of rides did. The number of rides provided by MetroAccess went up nearly three fold from 1999 to 2005. The answer to why that happened is something everyone, from planners to politicians, will find of interest.
If there were more rides, did it mean there were more riders? Only WMATA can answer that, as I could find no published numbers for registered MetroAccess riders in 1999. In the absence of those numbers I wondered – has there been an epidemic of disabled people? Are people somehow becoming disabled in greater numbers?
An examination of Census Bureau Statistics and the results of major studies shows that the percentage of disabled people in the population (between the ages of 20 and 64) has remained constant at about 7% between 2000 and the present . Even examining the Census population data for the DC Metro area, shows no great influx of disabled people. The proportions reported by the Census Bureau for the MetroAccess service area reflect the national average.
Could the Answer be Occam’s Razor?
Numquam ponenda est pluritas sine necessitate - or in plain english: The simplest answer is usually the correct answer.
Since there is no great disability epidemic, is there some other simple and logical explanation for a nearly three fold increase in the need for transportation by this segment of the population? N.O.D./Harris Survey has conducted surveys of the US disabled population. One of the most significant changes for many working age disabled people is that they have actually been able to get employment. The report issued in 2004 notes 35% of people with disabilities reported being employed full or part time. The numbers for 1999 reported by the Census Bureau indicate that only a little over 25% of the disabled population were so employed.
A 10% change in employment would almost certainly bring a change in the number of riders on a system which is dedicated to their use. Employed people need to get to and from work (whether they work part time or full time). Additionally, disabled riders need to go to medical appointments and, with additional disposable income, the other activities that make living in the DC Metro area attractive to the population in general.
Each employed registered MetroAccess rider could reasonably be assumed to have around 520 rides per year as a direct result of being employed. Looking at the change in the number of rides between 1999 and 2005, this would mean that only 1,390 employed people could account for the change in the number of rides provided. Oddly enough, that is just shy of 10% of the registered riders reported by WMATA.
Will There Be the Devil to Pay?
MetroAccess is not costing three time more on a per ride basis, the actual cost per ride has only risen a small amount. There has been a marked increase in the number of rides provisioned. This increase in rides provisioned mirrors what should be expected with the upturn in employment rates amongst the disabled.
WMATA is changing the eligibility requirements for MetroAccess rider registration in line with the recommendations of the 2003 Task Force. This will keep the number of trips from expanding as the newly disabled are denied service. WMATA is also planning to use the same criteria to disqualify many of those currently registered as they come up for recertification.
Statistically speaking some 35% of the people registered to use MetroAccess are employed. Currently they are able to remain employed because they have transportation to get to their jobs. These people contribute to the very tax funds that WMATA uses to fund MetroAccess. Unemployed, these same people will not only no longer be a source of tax revenue but they will also end up being “on the dole” at a cost to every other tax payer which far exceeds the amount that WMATA will “save” them.
